In May 2019 we updated our estimate of youth turnout to 28%.ĬIRCLE is estimating today that roughly 31% of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over our estimate in 2014, when our day-after exit poll calculation suggested that 21% of eligible young voters went to the polls. Although the president is not on the ballot, 31 percent said they plan to cast their vote to signal support for Trump, while 38 percent their vote will be cast to signal their opposition.Note: Below you'll find analyses conducted by CIRCLE in the hours immediately following the 2018 midterm elections with the best available data at that time. Former President Barack Obama was at 47 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval in the same poll at this point in his presidency. Trump's approval rating was at 46 percent in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll with 52 percent of respondents expressing disapproval. That the highest level for the poll since reaching a mark of 70 percent in January 2001. The ABC/Washington Post poll found that 65 percent had a positive view of the economy, up from 51 percent just prior to Trump's inauguration. That number has climbed to 38 percent, above the 37 percent when Trump took office and the 32 percent at this point in the Obama administration. At the end of last year, only 29 percent of respondents to the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll said the country was headed in the right direction. The data indicates that voters feel better about the state of the country and the economy than they did in 2017. The Republican edge among white men without a college education increased from 27 points in October to 39 points. And the poll found a huge slide in support for Democrats among independent female voters, from a 33-point edge in October to a two-point lead now. While the last two of their polls found women favoring Democrats by margins of more than 20 percent, that lead has dropped to 14 points in the most recent survey. The ABC/Washington Post poll found that Democrats had dropped sharply among demographic groups they are counting on for support. "But for Republicans, it feels slightly short of where you’d want to be for a national election." It is a more competitive race," Republican pollster Bill McInturff told NBC News. Now, the average Democratic lead has been cut to 7 points. The closing numbers reflect a steady improvement for Republicans from the end of 2017, when the RealClearPolitics polling average had Trump's party trailing Democrats by 13 points on a generic congressional ballot. Among registered voters, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found 70 percent are very interested in the election (rating their interest a nine or 10 on a scale from one to 10), up from a consistent 61 percent in the past three midterm elections. Among all registered voters, the race tightens further, to a 6-point lead for Democrats.Īs always, the election result will depend on voter turnout and both polls found high enthusiasm and interest in the election among voters.Įighty percent told the ABC/Washington Post pollsters they are "certain to vote" or had already voted, up from 65 percent in the 2014 midterm. Rasmussen put Trump's approval rating at 50 percent and his disapproval at 49 percent.Ī poll from ABC News and The Washington Post released Sunday found 52 percent would choose a generic Democrat over a generic Republican for Congress, while 44 percent would choose the Republican.Īn NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found a similar result, with 50 percent of likely voters favoring a Democratically controlled Congress and 43 percent favoring a Republican one.
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